Thought Experiment—Predictions For the “Red Wave” & Trump

Improve Your Process With Prediction & Reflection

This is one of the things that most of the people I admire constantly reiterate— “focus on process, not result. The results will take care of themselves when you have a consistent, clear, and repeatable process.”

I believe that taking time to reflect on your thinking is one of the best ways to learn, to improve your processes, problem-solving abilities, conclusions and to observe the depth of change within yourself. It’s also a great way to time travel. Pairing your thoughts and beliefs with specific events and moments in time can give you access to the Delorean. Plus, a healthy serving of nostalgia is clinically proven to soften the heart (message approved by the Surgeon General).

It’s easy to get caught in a loop of Groundhog’s Day mistakes if you don’t take the time to stop and ask yourself why the finale of each episode of your life keeps ending in the same place, despite “new” people, places, and things. What we’re usually overlooking is that we are the common denominator. As Feynman said, “the easiest person to fool is yourself”.

I have been considering how I can improve my thought processes, challenge my own thinking and see where there are patterns of flaw and biases. Making predictions at what feels like a critical moment in time (and probably won’t be 10 years from now) seemed like a fun way to approach it. And, given that the enigmatic, polarizing, and easy-to-dislike Trump was just re-elected in the United States of Anxiety + pretty much everyone assumes significant change is ahead, I thought it would be an enjoyable experiment to share some randomly assorted estimations of the future.  My motivation is 0% political and 100% motivated in testing my own beliefs and thought processes. I don’t have any belief that I will be correct either. I want to create as many opportunities as I can to look forward to looking back and see clear growth from specific points in time. This is not for or against DT or any other politician or political party. This is just a thought experiment.

I’m going to start with crypto and will navigate into some of the other subjects that have been of much debate amongst peers. 

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto & “The Red Wave”:

1. This time will not be different. Aldous Huxley once said, “Men don’t learn the lessons of history, and that, is the most important lesson of all.” Until something changes, I am inclined to favor history and fade all the reasons why this cycle will be different. The average cycle peaks between 518 and 546 days after the halving, which means we should expect a peak in September 2025, or sooner. My guess is that BTC will hit a price higher than most expect in the multi-six-figure range setting the stage for another major crash. We are on the cusp of Strategic Bitcoin Reserve’s being established among economic superpowers. Regardless of how bullish sentiment becomes, extreme optimism usually leads to greed, creating excess, pulling future gains into the present, which then transmutes euphoria into depression. This time won’t be different. Pull the rug before it gets pulled on you?!?
2. The US government will establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) and whether they buy 200,000 BTC/year over 5 years or not, the presumed arms race for other major governments to follow suit will take longer to play out than expected.  
3. Ethereum (ETH) is not dead despite growing bearish sentiment and pessimism around the networks’ prospects due to a lack of upward price action. What I love about Vitalik & Ethereum is that they’re sticking to the roadmap and playing long-term games with long-term people. Remember that usually the best time to buy an asset is when it’s out of favor, unloved, or misunderstood. Sooner or later, the institutions will discover that the deflationary economics of ETH are even more favorable than BTC—it’s reducing supply every year yet gives you the equivalent of a dividend in exchange for staking your allocation to secure the network. This is like the equivalent of buying Tesla ($TSLA) stock and getting paid a 4% dividend to hold (Solana is similar in that it pays a 7-8% dividend but they are massively inflating the supply, which makes it less appealing in the long run from a pure economics analysis). Don’t be shocked if ETH outperforms in the 1^st half of 2025.
4. A Solana (SOL) ETF will be approved, an ETH ETF allowing for capture of staking rewards will be approved, and perhaps even a Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF will coincide with extreme optimism and a broader cycle peak. Larry Fink’s mission to bring all securities on-chain will experience exponential growth within a deregulated landscape of financial markets, but that doesn’t mean prices will just go up in a straight line.  
5. NFTs are not dead, but they’re not coming back any time soon. The technology has foundational properties that will continue to lead to new innovations and ways of thinking on chain. The opportunities they open for creators, new mediums of art, new ways of building community, and ultimately a digital life on chain will propel them forward over the long run. OpenSea will launch a token now that Gary Gensler has stepped down as Chair of the SEC and the Red Wave is expected to pave the way for a wild wild west equivalent in the crypto markets.  
6. Real World Assets (RWA’s) will become one of the most important and tangible use cases in crypto: real estate, mortgages, loans, treasuries, stocks, bonds, etc.—it’s all going on chain
7. Institutions are a double-edged sword. The same way hedge funds & institutions have rapidly bid the price of BTC higher, they will be just as quick to lock in their profits and dump on retail at peak prices. With more than 60% of the world’s top hedge funds holding substantial positions in BTC, Goldman Sachs holding $750MM, almost every major bank. expecting them to be “HODLers” is delusional.
8. There will be over 1,000 companies holding BTC as a part of their Corporate Treasury (there are currently 139) and over 100 holding ETH. At least half of the Mag 7 companies in the US will join this list, with Microsoft or NVIDIA leading the way. This is in lieu of holding hoards of greenbacks which perpetually lose value (see below) due to rapid inflation and myopic politically driven monetary policy.

  Markets, Politics & the Economy:

1. If the Department of Government Efficiency (“DOGE”) is real, actionable, and able to make meaningful progress, we will have a recession. Regardless of what you think of Elon as a person, his results as an operator are indisputable. He’s been extremely vocal about aggressively cutting the deficit and taking steps to help the US get into a healthier fiscal standing. With government spending in the US registering at an audacious ~34% of GDP in 2023, it’s hard to imagine how significant cuts won’t lead to short-term pain in exchange for long-term gain. Elon fired 70% of Twitter’s employees and many people believe it operates better than before. With that said, operating successfully in public & private markets would seem to be very different than having success in politics, so I remain skeptical here. I think it’s just as likely that Elon & DT have a falling out vs. great success. It would be an impressive feat if the two biggest egos in the world could co-exist functionally for 4 years without drama and a break-up.
2. Recession or not, those in power will do whatever they need to further their own interests and drive markets higher. Good or bad–Kleptocrat comes to mind when I think about a “Red Wave”. Hedge Funds, Bitcoin Evangelists, VC’s & Free Market Zealots are more pervasive in positions of power than any other moment in modern US history. This will continue to usher in policies that help markets flourish more broadly. With that said, our unwillingness to allow for a true recession to take place and to paper off every moment of volatility with trillions of US dollars will eventually catch up to us and set the stage for a greater fallout when the bill ultimately arrives.
3. The deficit will grow
4. Inflation will return in 2025 and rates will not be able to come down as quickly as forecasted, leading to rising tensions between DT and Jerome Powell
5. China will outperform and the expected impacts of tariffs will be overstated
6. $TSLA, $PLTR, $BTC, $COIN, $IJT and $MSTR have the inside track for outsized gains (for now at least)…don’t be surprised if Tesla is a $2-3 Trillion company, Palantir does another exponential multiple expansion (due to Peter Theil & JD Vance VC ties), and Microstrategy becomes a billion dollar company. Michael Saylor’s incredibly bold BTC yield strategy has brought BTC to center stage. I don’t believe there’s any in-between for $MSTR—it’s either epic crash or it’s $NVDA.  
7. Space travel, autonomous driving, eVTOL & nuclear energy will experience hyper growth & development in both public & private markets. Elon has his dream to rapidly accelerate autonomous driving. I wouldn’t be surprised if self-driving cars and taxis are ubiquitous, and we have uber helicopter transports (see $ACHR, $JOBY, $BLDE, $ARKX, $OKLO).
8. The U.S. will moderate the military complex and geo-political risks will de-escalate, rather than accelerate. I heard being an optimist is good for my mental health, so let’s shoot for the stars.
9. Despite DT being such a controversial figurehead, people will find a way to grow closer together, build stronger communities, and idea labs for constructive disagreement will re-emerge. His return opens the door for great change, resilience, and growth for those who reject what he stands for and those who previously didn’t support him but flipped in this election. Adversity doesn’t build character, it reveals character. Leaning into the things that bring us the most discomfort usually leads to the most meaningful self-improvement. Love him or hate him, he’s here for the next four years.
10. We’ll see the first female President in 2028, and she’ll even be under 70 years old…the first President-elect in over a decade to bring some much-needed youth to Commander & Chief